Introducing the TelluBase U.S. Recession Predictor

Building on Ben Bernanke’s widely used recession probability model, we invented a better model using exactly the same ...
Seeking Alpha

Introducing TMC Research's Recession Probability Indicator

Some economists are predicting that US recession risk is rising, and a downturn could arrive before the year is out, but the supporting data to date is still thin. If the central bank does ease ...

Recession Talk Isn't Back, But Economic Unease Is — These 4 ETFs Could Help If The Economy Wobbles

Economists see roughly 30–40% recession odds — not dominant, but not negligible. These 4 ETFs could help investors stay ...
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This Recession-Forecasting Algorithm Hasn't Been Wrong in 65 Years -- and It Has an Ominous Message for Wall Street

This has been a roller coaster year for the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, with all three enduring a mini-crash and a rip-roaring rally to new highs. A new ...
AOL

UBS gives America a recession checkup and sees a 93% probability from the hard data, with a ‘soggy’ economy ahead

There are certain words you don’t want to hear in a medical checkup or in an investment bank’s recession outlook: “stable but elevated.” It’s a phrase that could refer to blood pressure, even risk of ...

The probability of a recession is low, says Evercore's Julian Emanuel

Julian Emanuel, senior managing director at Evercore ISI, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the slump in software ...

Recession odds fade according to prediction markets

Despite heightened volatility across financial markets in recent sessions, signals from prediction markets suggest recession ...
AOL

Polymarket traders doubt there will be a recession. We asked prediction gurus if you should listen.

Polymarket and Kalshi traders' perceived probability of a recession this year has plunged recently. Both prediction markets surged in popularity after users called Trump's election win in November.
NBC 6 South Florida

Slower economic growth is likely ahead with risk of a recession rising, according to the CNBC Fed Survey

Respondents to the March CNBC Fed Survey have raised the risk of recession to the highest level in six months, cut their growth forecast for 2025 and hiked their inflation outlook. Much of the change ...